By: Stefan Aarnio
Freedomway.ca
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Today I received a magazine in the mail that read on the cover “Why Canadian Real Estate Will Plummet 20% and Stay Down For Years”. After seeing the title, I immediately stopped what I was doing, put my schedule on hold and had to read the doom and gloom article.

Canadian real estate is such a broad term that it is impossible to make a general statement about it. Canada is the second longest land mass on the planet after Russia and we cover so many square kilometers that for all intensive purposes, comparing Vancouver to Toronto to PEI to Winnipeg really makes no sense. The Canadian cities are so spread out and so independent of each other that each market is influenced by a completely different set of forces.

The article claims that Canada will plummet 20% and only mentions speculative real estate in Vancouver and Toronto. More specifically, when “experts” talk about Canadian Real Estate, they mostly focus on the Toronto Condo market, which has been red-hot with record sales of 28,000 units and another 240,000 units to be built in the near future.

Detached homes in Toronto were seeing buyer mania with buyers bidding $100,000 over asking price for a detached home. When cheap, dumb money enters a market, idiotic buyers will pay $100,000 over asking for a single detached home in Toronto.

… But what is Cheap, Dumb Money?

Cheap, Dumb Money is cheap because interest rates are at an all time low. Money has never been this cheap in history, so buyers make crazy decisions that they normally wouldn’t. Along with being cheap, the money is also dumb because it comes from someone who is ignorant and uneducated about the market making a speculative play on a piece of real estate. In investing, when cheap, dumb money enters a market, it’s time to sell. When the dumb money is leaving the market, it’s time to get in. In investing, being smart is easy - just do the opposite of what the stupid people do!

When we compare Canada’s real estate to the USA’s markets, Canada has been steadily climbing since the early 2000’s while the US took a nosedive in 2006. Many uneducated people think that Canada and the US are so similar and so connected that Canada is due for a crash as well.

However, what we don’t consider is that the US did not really have a housing crash. What the USA had was mass mortgage fraud. The prices that homes in the US sold for in 2006 were completely fictional and fraudulent prices that shouldn’t have happened in the first place. Cheap, Dumb Money entered the US market via NINJA borrowers (No income, No Job, No assets) and suddenly clerks working at Safeway could own 5 brand new homes in the suburbs where they were planning to “flip” them for a profit. Everyone was speculating with Cheap Dumb Money and prices went insane. The banks underwrote mortgages on completely insane lending standards and lots of fraud happened. The US market crashed because mass mortgage fraud occurred. The low prices we see today in the US are very low compared to the fraudulent prices that were paid in 2006, but they are in line with construction values and rental values in many ways. Real Estate in the USA right now is worth a value closer to the intrinsic value of the actual property and that makes the US market a good place to buy right now.

In my home market in Winnipeg, I write 5 to 25 offers a week and have to acquire a property every 15 days to run my business. I am seeing a divide in the Winnipeg market that has been red-hot for quite some time. Some sellers think that their house is red-hot and needs to sell for an insane valuation; other sellers think that real estate is going down right now and will settle for less. The market is fragmented between those who think the mania that went on in Winnipeg for the last 2 years will continue forever and the realists who think that the market is correcting.

For myself, I think that real estate in Winnipeg will correct in the next 12 to 24 months, and that is only because Winnipeg has been hot for so long. Cheap Dumb Money has been running around in the Winnipeg market for far too long and things have been selling for prices that don’t make sense. It’s not that Real Estate in Winnipeg is “going down” or “getting worse”, it’s just that the mania has to stop. We will likely see less bidding wars, less homes selling over asking price and less insanity in the market.

For myself, I am very happy about this, but I am a professional. Whether the market goes up or down, I’m happy; I can make money either way. All that this means for me, and for you, is that Canadian Real Estate in many markets will be easier to buy in the next 12 months than it has been in the past. Negotiating will be easier, getting discounts will be easier and for myself, the business will become more fun (I love to buy).

Stefan Aarnio
Freedomway.ca
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By: Stefan Aarnio
Freedomway.ca
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In Stocks, Insider Trading is illegal. In Real Estate, Insider Trading is essential.

In any market, there are insiders and there are outsiders. When corporate executives on Wall Street buy or sell stocks in their own companies with “insider knowledge”, they go to jail. When a real estate investor gets first chance to purchase a property privately without public knowledge, he gets rich.

Markets like Wall Street are set up like Casinos and TV stations like BNN are funded by Stockbrokers to create excitement and encourage trading. The brokers get paid when trades happen, so they want their audience on BNN to get emotional and make trades. BNN will run stories that pump the emotions of the audience just to make money, the information is not provided to make actual sound decisions.

When emotions go up, intelligence goes down and the house always wins… and you are not the house.

In my opinion, the Stock market is not designed for you to win. It’s a game played by insiders and institutional investors who control their own information. For the average retail investor, there is very little control in stocks, unless you are an insider.

I prefer to control my investments, control the management and control the outcome of my returns. I also prefer to make purchases as an insider with access to the necessary information to make profitable decisions.

Information is king in the market and he who controls the information, controls the market.

In Real Estate you can become an insider by:

1)   Having a large network of other investors

2)   Having a large network of lawyers

3)   Posting private advertisements for deals

4)   Offering referral programs

5)   Having a large network of Realtors

6)   Public speaking in front of groups of investors

7)   Creating content, blogs and videos for consumption

8)   Having a network of property managers

9)   Having a network of private lenders

10)                   Becoming the biggest, most visible person in the market

The truth is, becoming an insider is quite simple in Real Estate. The best deals always come to those who are 1) The most visible 2) Most connected and 3) The ones who control the information in the market.

When a real estate deal hits the local market with a Realtor, the deal has already been cherry picked by at least 8 sets of eyes. The fewer sets of eyeballs that see the deal before hitting the market, the higher the chances are to profit.

In high school it’s easier to date the girl who is the bookworm than it is to date the prom queen.  The prom queen has so many more sets of eyeballs on her so her value is way over-inflated and there is a line up of guys dying to get a chance with her. Avoid the prom queen at all costs and go for the bookworm. With some lipstick and high-heels she can easily be the prom queen, but with a much lower cost.

This analogy applies directly to Real Estate. By the time a house hits the retail market, multiple Realtors have looked at it, at least one broker, a few secretaries, assistants, everyone in the immediate circle from the seller, all of the realtor’s best clients, all of the broker’s best clients, contractors and then other buyers who get to it first.

By the time the property gets to you, everyone has explored any easy chances for profit and you and you are usually too late to the party. Plus, you now have to pay the price that the seller wanted plus the commissions of 2 realtors and 2 brokers. Negotiating becomes muddled because the realtors always have their own interests above their clients and sometimes the brokers can complicate negotiations as well.

When all of these “professionals” get involved, prices begin to rise and favorable terms disappear. All options for good terms or no money down deals go out the window because the Realtors will kill any chances of a “creative deal”. They want to get paid their commissions immediately and do not care about the price or terms of the deal: They just want the transaction to happen regardless of outcome.

However, when you become an insider, or partner with an insider, you get first access to deals before anyone else gets a chance to look.

The best deals I have done have come from:

1)   Other investors who could not close on private deals

2)   Private ads I have placed

3)   My networks and relationships

Being active in the market, participating in local investor groups, having an online presence, private advertising and public speaking have created an insider position for myself in my market. Being visible and sending a clear message that I am “always looking for deals” has attracted excellent opportunities that are well under market value, under appraised value, 100% vendor financed, or no money down. The average person believes that these deals do not exist or are not possible in their local market. The truth is, these deals are available everywhere, but you need to become an insider or partner with an insider to take advantage of them.

The best deals are made and are not advertised on the market because they never ever make it to market. This rule applies to any market: the best girls to date are not advertised on e-harmony, match.com or at the local bar. To find real value in life and in the market, we must become the insider, become well connected, become visible and control the information around us.

The best deals are reserved for insiders, everyone else can pay full price.

Stefan Aarnio
Freedomway.ca
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By: Stefan Aarnio
Freedomway.ca
facebook.com/stefanaarnio
https://twitter.com/stefanaarnio
http://ca.linkedin.com/in/stefanaarnio

Remember: Please share this article if you found it enjoyable!

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and so is value.

Everyday, we, the human race, wakes up and chases value until we drop dead from exhaustion at night.

It doesn't matter if you are Donald Trump sitting on a multi billion dollar real estate portfolio or monk in a temple. We are all chasing value.

The real question is, what is value and what is valuable?

Of course, value is highly subjective and can be very hard to determine.

I always find it interesting to see how excited people are to buy new clothes. Shopping malls are filled with rabid people who are frantically purchasing new garments to wear and 6 months later the clothes that they purchased will be donated to charity or thrown away.

The value of the clothes goes from "I will sacrifice my financial health to wear this" to absolutely "I will never wear this piece of garbage again".

The same thing happens with electronics. The day that apple releases a new iPhone or iPod, people are camping out overnight to get their hands on the new gadget and will pay a mortgage payment to own it. 6 months later, the same people are giving the old iPhone to their dog or are using it as a coaster on a coffee table because the newer, thinner model came out.

But what about investments? Real estate? Houses?

What is the true intrinsic value of a house?

Most middle class people will say "our house is our biggest asset"!

Most middle class people will have nearly all of their net-worth tied up in their home.

But what is the house actually worth? What is any house actually worth?

The truth is, all real estate is actually worth $0. Land and buildings are completely worthless.

If you would like to see the true value of land and buildings, drive to Detroit where you can buy a city block for $1 and nobody wants to buy it. People who live in detroit would rather have a $1 Taco at Taco Bell than own the liability of a city block.

Land, real estate, houses, and buildings only get value when there is a USE for it and an END USER. The end user places his or her subjective value on the Real Estate and that is where values come from.

There are more people who want to live in Manhattan than Detroit. That's why Manhattan real estate is worth so much more than Detroit.

At the end of the day, Real Estate is only worth what the end user is willing to pay. However, one metric I have been using more and more of lately is dollars per square foot.

When comparing two similar properties, dollars per square foot is one of the best ways to measure the current and future value of the property.

For example, in Winnipeg right now, many houses trade in the $200-$250 per square foot range. If you can make a purchase at $100 per square foot in an area that is trading at $200-$250, you have an opportunity for profit.

Construction in Winnipeg for a new build is approximately $200 per square foot, so if you can purchase for less than $200, you are getting the house cheaper than it would be to build. Likewise, if you pay $270 per square foot, you are paying more than it costs to build.

When analyzing retail single family homes, dollars per square foot is an excellent metric for intrinsic value of the property.

BUY ON INTRINSIC VALUE, SELL ON EMOTIONAL VALUE

One of the easiest ways to profit in any market is to:
1) Buy on intrinsic value and
2) Sell on emotional value

There is always profit in markets that have irrational buyers. Irrational buyers means that irrational amounts of money are floating around looking for irrational products.

For example, the neighborhood River Heights in Winnipeg is a desirable neighborhood where people will pay irrational amounts of money to get their kids into the local schools. In River heights properties trade for $200-$250 per square foot, prices that are well above cost to build.

However, in up and coming parts of town, there are "rational" buyers who will only pay prices that less than construction prices. These areas will trade at $150-200 dollars per square foot.

The key for profit is to buy with on an intrinsic value, pump the value and sell to an emotional, irrational buyer. The irrational buyer is unconcerned with what they are actually paying. They WANT the product and perceive that they NEED it. If you have a business, you want irrational buyers. Irrational buyers are consumers who allow you to create massive spreads in your products and grow your business.

Do what you can to attract irrational buyers. When you capture these buyers, take great care of them, and they will take great care of you.

Thanks for reading,
By: Stefan Aarnio
Freedomway.ca
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https://twitter.com/stefanaarnio
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P.S: Please share this article if you found it enjoyable!